Tuesday, 12 September 2017

Apex frozen  –
Apex have 15000 MTPA capacity , where they have taken 6000 MTPA capacity on Lease from Royal Marine.
They are coming up with capacity of 20000 MTPA at end fy 18.
They paid 100 million as processing charges to Royal marine in fy 17.
5000 MTPA in the new capacity is for high value cooked products.
Due to saving on processing charges of 100million and addition of high value products the margin will expand. 
Capacity utilization of 48% in fy 19 and 71 % in fy 20 is expected.
One can feel if a company has taken 63% capacity on lease, then it is surely expecting a lot more growth and have ample orders in hand .
With EPS estimate of 16 in fy 18 and 22 in fy 19 there is room for ample growth .
The business model is different than of Avanti feeds as  in avanti major part of revenues comes from feed where as in APEX shrimp processing is major revenue source.

Only risk in shrimp sector is natural calamities in terms of cyclone and spread of disease so these factors have to be taken into stride.  

Friday, 1 September 2017

CENTRUMCAPITAL – AGM NOTE .

CENTRUMCAPITAL – AGM NOTE .
I attended the AGM yesterday, sharing my observations –

MFI -
Company will receive MFI license in a months’ time  and are planning to take over a MFI company.
As after demonetization valuation of MFI companies have come down by 1/3Rd so it best suited for the company to buy a MFI business.
Company want to enter MFI as it will felicitate the social engagement , which in turn will make them eligible for various licenses they will apply in future, (here the hint is that 3-4 years down the line company may apply for banking license). UJJVAN and EQUITAS got banking license as they had strong presence in MFI sector.

HFC –
12 branches are operational in M.P and Gujurat and now entered Maharashtra by end Fy 18 they will have 20 branches in HFC division .
In cities like ANAND , BHARUCH , UJJAIN ,NAGDA no financial instutition is lending to NON salaried class which is huge market.
Motilal oswals HFC arms Aspire lends to NON salaried aggressively in pune and other cities that is one of the reason that they have grown very fast .
In my view in next 1 year per branch can easily disburse 80-100 crore which can take the HFC loan book to 1500 -1800 crore.

Forex -
Company is  very bullish on forex business and will continue expanding that.
Presently 23 million people are travelling and are expected to go upto 100 million in next 10 years.

SME Lending –
Huge part of MSME segment is still not financed by the banks and NBFCs, company is bullish on SME sector too .
Mr bindra said that when economy is growing by 6-7 % then the leding sector grows by 3x i.e 18-21 %
So the opportunity is huge and they plan to expand keeping risk and NPA’ in control.

Presently company have staff size of 2000 people and growing .

Mr bindra said that company is very well placed for capex for next 5 years.
PROMOTER HAVE PLANS TO HIKE STAKE IN THE COMPANY
I feel there are much better days ahead for the company and shareholders.








YASH PAPERS : Have all traits of a multibagger

YASH PAPERS –
Company came out of CDR and have invested 54 crores in the new plant
They have launched a moulded paper product segment where they are making various sizes Plates,Bowl,Containers,Lids & Trays under Brand name is Chuck.
Its made from bagasse a by product after sugarcane crushing in sugar plants.
Company’s plant is in UP and they get ample baggase at almost free.
Company already supply paper carry bags and paper trays to MacDonald’s, Kfc , pizza hut ,Waco and yum.
They have big order in hand from us market for Paper tray products and have started supplying to the US markets .
CHUCK is a high margin product which will improve overall margin of the company.
Fy 18 they are expected to do 225 crores sales and 14 -17 crore pat.
So We are getting the company at 5 PE of fy 18 Earnings.
Promoter have allotted 29.3 lakhs warrants in July 2017 Which is 9% of equity So the promoter shareholding will go substantially up .

Recently there is institutional interest in the company and some share placement may be done soon.

Tuesday, 29 August 2017

BIG POSITIVES : GST COLLECTIONS & DOLLAR INDEX SETUP

BIG POSITIVES : GST COLLECTIONS & DOLLAR INDEX SETUP 

Biggest positive new in midst of Turmoil is GST colletions for July have exceeded targets whereas only 64% firms could file returns .
Checked with local CA offices as there is still some confusion in filing returns and CAs are over burdened that why all returns could not be uploaded on time.
Most of the Unorganized sector has not come under GST till now .
Real impact will come once the E WAY BILLs are implemented in NOV – DEC 2017 then most of unorganized guys will have no option but to get registered for GST .

Governments Tax collection is expected to improve substantially resulting improved TAX to GDP ratio and In turn improved RATINGs by foreign rating  agencies .

Another positive is – DOLLAR index near breakdown pattern on charts,if it happens then the fund flows to emerging markets will resume .

USA economy is continuing to improve on various parameters and investors are neglecting the war threat with N korea. 

Sunday, 20 August 2017

CENTRUM CAPITAL - Road Ahead for promising Diversified NBFC.

CENTRUM CAPITAL - Road Ahead for promising Diversified NBFC.
I had shared the buy call on 1 feb 2017 when the price was 35/- now it has run up to 72 levels and stock being put in T2T segment , so whats the path ahead ??

I feel that it can be compared to the like of uniply where there was a management change in feb 2015
Mr keshav Kantamneni bought a 36% in the company and drove the company to profitability and growth.
During the entire phase the valuation looked too stretched But the investors who had conviction held on to it and reaped rich benefits, at the later stages seasoned investors like Ramesh damani and R.k damani invested in the company. In 2.5 years the stock is a 25 bagger.
There is management change in centrum capital too and “Jaspal Bindra” a seasoned banker with vast experience has taken control and has invested 90 crores of his own money to buy 20% in the company.
Centrum capital is into following verticals –
Forex services – They are among the top players in India.
Investment banking
Stock broking
Wealth Management
Insurance
SME finance – Started in Fy -17
Housing Finance- Started in fy -17 -
PE fund – Kalpvriksha with 500 crores.
Micro Finance – have applied for micro finance license and expected to get it in 3-4 months.

They have appointed CEO’s for various verticals, hiring and branch expansion is going at rapid pace and
Spoke to few employees, this year the increment & bonus was good and the mood is very upbeat in the company, it’s a matter of time that the performance will be there.
Centrum is a well-known brand and has presence throughout the country with 135 branches in 46 cities
They can surely leverage the brand and can utilize the huge existing customer base.

In a recent interview with stallion Asset Rashesh shah of edelweiss has mentioned -
Edelweiss wants to create a 1,00,000 Crore loan book divided in 10 verticals so they can stop lending as risk increases, or increase lending in a vertical as opportunity increases. We believe a diversified NBFC is atleast 5x more safer than a concentrated one segment NBFC and deserves a higher valuation. Full interview can be read here https://www.stallionasset.com/blog/edelweiss-investor-day/ - this is a very insightful interview to understand the future of NFBC sector in India. 
I believe centrum is also going in the edelweiss way where they want to grow in different verticals and establish themselves as a strong Financial Institution in the long term.


Market is bound to get excited with the news announcements by the company at various times and the valuations  may seem stretched in short term but if one can have patience and can hold on for 4 -6 quarters then the Nos will also start showing. 

Thursday, 30 March 2017

CREST VENTURES -
Highly undervalued ,Expansion In Real Estate , Diversification in Financial sector.

Cmp - 179
M CAP - 465 crore
PAT - fy 16 - 37.19 cr
Pe - 10.21
Promoter holding- 65 %
Core group holding - 75%
Recently raised 43.4 cr from Right's issue.
Real estate play and going aggressively into financial services .
Vikram kotak joined their wealth management subsidiary and picked up 4.5 % stake in oct 2016
@ 70 /-
They will be getting a housing finance license soon and have big plans for financial sector .
Company have 40% stake in edelweiss fund management which is a subsidiary of edelweiss financial .
Heard that their subsidiaries are worth more than 1000 crore .

As they were the developers and jv partners for Phoenix market city Chennai and palladium mall chennai
The have stake in the properties and receives healthy rental income .
Rental annuity income of 70 -80 crore is expected in next two financial years ..
they have various completed and ongoing residential and commercial projects.
Company have sizeable land bank in various cities which they hold through the subsidiaries .
promoter increased shareholding by 8 % in Dec quarter  and it is seen that a big accumulation is going on. 

Wednesday, 1 February 2017

CENTRUM CAPITAL: GROWTH ENGINE under JASPAL BINDRA ex Stanchart CEO

Group of PE investors led by Jacob Ballas bought 30% stake in Centrum Direct by paying 340 crores.  This deal values Centrum Direct alone at 1000 -1100 CR.. Market cap of centrum capital (which holds 100% shares of centrum direct) is 1500 CR..

Funds may be utilised for housing finance biz and SME finance.. They also have formed an equity fund of 500 CR to fund SmE & mid size cos..

Ex stanchart Asia CEO Jaspal Bindra have joined the company as a chairman  in 2016 by picking up near about 18-20 % stake in the company.

Recently the promoters hiked stake in centrum .

On ground they have appointed CEOs for various business and hiring is going on in full speed .

Got housing finance license and have appointed sanjay shukla ex CEO of centbank home finance.


http://www.livemint.com/Companies/HeH0FBceT5fdGOhsLGig8O/PE-investors-buy-stake-in-Centrums-forex-business.html

Sunday, 22 January 2017

FAZE3 – TURAROUN STORY??


http://www.fazethree.com

Supplying bath-mats, blankets , Rugs and other textile products to walmart, J.c Penny , Lidil- Hongkong
E-mart- korea , and to other 15 countries .
The company seems to be on a turnaround path, , recently raised funds by issuing more than 15% equity on preferential basis,

Girik capital bought 7.17 lacs shares on 20th Jan 2017 , Girik capital is known to find deep value and turnaround stories.
Their commitment to the Faze3 can be seen from fact that the founders Charandeep singh and Varun Daga have bought 2 lacs shares each on personal capacity too .
Seems like a interesting story.
Doing more work and will update with a detailed analysis.

HUGE POSITIVE IN  - Dec 16 Q3 Results
Sales almost flat yoy. 56.75 vs  55.59
Profits 35.91 Crore As compare to 69 lakhs in Dec 15 & 4.32 crores is Sept 16.
1)Other income of 17.45 crore , 12.38 crore part of the other income is because of  written back  amount due to settlement with canara bank for waiver of unapplied interest and other charges on the working capital loan given to its subsidiary.
2) Further 11.12 crore deferred tax assets written back due to which profits swelled to 35.91 crore.

Other than the implications of the above nos there is operational efficiency seen.
Cost of material consumer came down by 9 crores , other expenses reduces by 4.3 crores
Interset payment reduced by 1.71 crores.
A clear 7.34 crore of profits is due to operational efficiency.

The total outstanding on the FCCB bonds was 103 crores, due the the settlement with the bond holders
61.28 crore is written back in the books.
Other liabilities reduced from 161 crores to 27 crore
Company have mentioned in the notes that Due to the equity issued in oct 2016 and write backs the companys net worth have become positive to the amount of  75.89 crores and the company have come out of BIFR with effect from  1 dec 2016.

This seems to be curious case of a big time financial restructuring and operational improvement.
For more clarifications Please read the detailed note by the company in the result fillings.


Wednesday, 4 January 2017

VIDLI RESTAURANTS: MULTIBAGGER STOCK IN QSR SEGMENT


Vidli Restaurants Ltd
Vidli Restaurant Ltd.  Is a "Kamats" group company running chains of restaurants serving hygienic standardize Veg food items in a quick serve format at various outlets on national highways, state highways and cities. The group is known for its brands "Vithal Kamat" and' Kamats'..
The Company started its operations in November 2013. Since then, the company started expanding its restaurant chain and concentrated on standardizing its products and services through centralized purchasing and training system.  As on 30th September 2016 they have 84 outlets.
Started restaurants in western and central territories on major highways and recently started operations in select cities also.
The Delhi airport outlet is Operational from the Month of November 2016 and is doing good business from 1st month onwards, company plans to open few more outlets at various Airports across the country.
The south Indian food & snacks is very well accepted across their outlets.
Going ahead they will also open take away Quick service restaurants near all major local Railway stations in Mumbai.
Company largely targets affordable segment of the market through our outlets. Presently, our operations are categorized into family dining, khaojao and kamat's corner model.
Recently opened outlet at Delhi Airport, which is doing brisk sales from day one.
Brands-
Vithal Kamats – Original Family Restaurants

It is a trusted vegetarian family restaurant chain that deliver veg food and refreshments on highways through dedicated and trained team who are also owner of the franchise.
 
Vidli by Kamats

Vidli Restaurants Pvt Ltd is promoted by the Kamats Group – a hospitality brand operating a large number hotels and restaurants.
 
Kamats Academy

Providing Residential training to franchisee staff at Kamats Academy in Panvel.
Objects of the Public Issue:
The objects of the Issue are:
1. Finance establishment of new food joints;
2. General Corporate Purpose;
3. Issue Expenses.
Issue Detail:
  »» Issue Open: Feb 3, 2016 - Feb 5, 2016
  »» Issue Type: Fixed Price Issue IPO
  »» Issue Size: 1,310,000 Equity Shares of Rs 10 aggregating up to Rs 1.31 Cr
  »» Face Value: Rs 10 per Equity Share
  »» Issue Price: Rs. 10 per Equity Share
  »» Market Lot: 10000 Shares
   »» Listing At: BSE SME
The company has entered into Master Franchise agreement in last August with MNM group for a period of 5 years wherein the said group would have exclusive rights to give franchisee in Gujarat region
Key Management Profile
Sr. No. Name                         Nature of Directorship

1.  Mr. Ramnath Pradeep         Chairman and Independent Director
2.  Ms. Vidhi V. Kamat           Managing Director
3.  Mr. Vaibhav Rathi              Independent Director
4.Mr. Arun Jain                        Independent Director                                                                                    5.Mr Amit Mehta                      CFO
6 Mr Chandrakant Shetty          CEO

Ms. Vidhi Kamat is daughter in law of Mr. Vithal Kamat owner of kamat hotels and wife of          Mr. Vikram kamat
Mr.Vikram Kamat is Chief mentor to the company and give full time in guiding the company.







Shareholding pattern – Promoters -
Statement showing shareholding pattern of the Promoter and Promoter Group
Category of shareholder
No. of fully paid up equity shares held
Total nos. shares
Shareholding as a % of total no. of shares
A1) Indian
0
Individuals/Hindu undivided Family
5,42,000
5,42,000
12.52
Vidhi Vikram Kamat
5,42,000
5,42,000
12.52
Any Other (specify)
19,70,000
19,70,000
45.5
VITS HOTELS WORLDWIDE PRIVATE LIMITED
7,75,000
7,75,000
17.9
CONWY FINANCE AND LEASING PRIVATE LTD
11,95,000
11,95,000
27.6
Sub Total A1
25,12,000
25,12,000
58.01
A2) Foreign
0
A=A1+A2
25,12,000
25,12,000
58.01

Major public shareholding –as On 30-Sept-2016
Company have placed at 14%- 15% equity to the employees so the employees have the ownership and are much more motivated to take the company to next level.

Business Analysis –

Vidli Restaurant is into running chains of restaurants serving hygienic standardize Veg food items in a quick serve format at various outlets on national highways, state highways and cities.
At the time of listing in Feb - 2016 they had 42 operational outlets.
As on 30th September 2016 they have total of 84 outlets 68 operational outlets and 16 more are signed-up, which will be operational in next 3 -4 months.


The Run Rate for signing the franchisees is 2 per month as of now.
The geographical spread of franchisee is as follows –
Gujrat – 3
Maharashtra – 56
Delhi - NCR -  2
Shimla – 1
Manali - 1

4 new outlets added in the month November and December 2016 –
1- Terminal1-C Delhi Airport - daily sales 62,000/-
2- Waked, Pune. At Mumbai-Pune expressway - daily sales- 71000
3- Nasik highway At Rajgurunagar (near Bharat forge SEZ) - daily sales - 33000
4- Nagpur at National Highway - daily sales - 24000.

These four outlets will add 55-60 lakhs to company’s bottom line in FY 18.

Most of the Franchisee in Maharashtra are on the highways, and due to Central Government’s focus Road & Highway sector the highway traffic increasing day by day across country presenting opportunity to open more outlets on highways.

Other than highways the company is also expanding the reach within city limits i.e. in Malls and in market locations.
Recently opened outlet in Palava Mall has got a very positive response and the sales are very promising from first week itself.
They have opened outlet outside MEERA ROAD STATION getting very good sales from first month of 24000 – 28000 per day.
The entire kitchen in this outlet is fitted in only 100 sq ft area which will enable to open outlets in congested marketplaces and high streets.
The Delhi Airport outlet and the Meera Road Railway station outlet will give them excellent visibility and branding.

Company is getting a lot of inquiries for franchisees as ROI for the franchisee owner comes around 40-50% which is unheard of in the similar businesses.  
Due to such a high ROI a franchisee recovers whole investment in 1.5 -2 years .
Some franchisee owners have taken 2 to 3 franchisees.

The company take 10 lacs as license fees for Dine in format -1500 to 2000 sqft  and 7 lacs  for
khao jao outlet – 800-1200 sq ft .
The license is for a term of 10 years and after 10 years the franchisee will have to renew the agreement.

The company have established a centralized warehouse in THANE in Mumbai and in PUNE.
They are in midst of fine tuning the centralize supply chain in state of Maharashtra, once the model fine-tuned the company is expected to Roll out in other states aggressively.

They supply premixes in powder form for all major items like Idli, Dosa, Batata vada, Medu Vada, Upma, Paav Bhaji, Saambar, Tomato gravy, onion gravy, Garlic chutney, Chhole masala. 
Due to this the Taste is consistent across all outlets.

I have been to 21 different outlets of their and found that all are doing excellent business; they maintain absolute cleanliness and have consistency in taste. 

Company is also supplying Tea and Cooking oil through centralized purchase to the franchisee outlets due to which franchisees get these items at a substantial discount from the market price.

Company has a training academy to train the staff for franchisees in Panvel which is another plus.
They encourages the workers to work for 3 years and then become a franchisee owner
Good no. of the franchisees are past employee owned.

The company has designed a Automatic Dosa making machine which is fitted in palava mall outlet  it dispenses thousands of ready to eat Dosas per day, they have successfully found a solution to most cumbersome task of  manually making Dosa’s.

The company management is full of dynamic individuals most of whom have years of experience in the hospitality and Restaurant industry.

Company has hired Mr. Lowell Farkas as a consultant from United States of America.
He has headed the Panera chain which boasts of over 4000 outlets in the USA.
He is working with the brand to put international standards in place and in strategizing the next phase of growth both national and international


The average sale per franchisee outlet is around 8 lacs per month.
Presently all franchisee combine are doing a sale of 4.3 crore per month, 
The company takes 7% royalty in first year 8% in second year and 9% in third year on sales.

As it’s a franchisee model and is asset light the company generates a lot of free cash from royalty income and License fees.
If they sign  25 franchisee in a year they roughly get 2 crores of cash only from license fees.

On a conservative side end of  fy 17 they will have 85 outlets, fy 18 -130, fy 20 -300 outlets.

They are expected to do the PAT of 1.3 Crores in fy 17 and  PAT of 4.7 Crores in fy 18. 
They have concrete plans to open 300 outlets by fy 20 where the PAT could be 14-15 crores.
At that time Stock Market can easily give them a PE of 60-70  to the high growth QSR segment company.
So the Market cap would be 1000-1100 crores and corresponding Stock price would be 2300-2500/-

I feel that in India more people are ready to eat Idli dosa in a hygienic setup at Rs 50- to Rs70/- rather than eating Pizaa at 150-350/-

So in long term say 10-12 years I don’t see any reason why this company will not come close to jubilant foodworks having a market cap of 6300 crores, with 1100 outlets.
Vidli surely have the capability and demand to open more than 2000 outlets in next 10-12 years.

A case in point is Goli Vada pav , they started in 2011 and in end 2015 they had 300 outlets and were doing sales of 56 crores.

What Patanjali is doing in Ayurveda Vidli Restaurants can do something similar in Quick service Restaurants.

With the increasing awareness about healthy food, where south Indian food have top of the mind recall and increasing acceptance of  its Restaurants ,VIDLI Restaurants seems to be a on a secular growth path .

Cons –
1. Execution capabilities of management outside Maharashtra are not known.
  
2. It is to be seen how well the south Indian dominated menu is accepted in north Indian states 
3. Company focusing on which other states other than Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, is now known.
4. Company has to put system and surveillance for Transparent Billing and revenue collection from franchisee.
5. Road map for centralized warehousing and supply management outside Maharashtra is not clear.
6. Legacy issues of kamat group, On this front Mr Vikram kamat have resigned from all posts from Kamat hotels and is full time mentoring Vidli Restaurtant, both Vithal kamat and Vikram kamat families have issued notices in new-papers about their separation and perusal of separate businesses and careers.
Important links –



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVohgIIfCZU – Sadhak, Chalak, & Malak programme where they make their employees as owners.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UC3JcqZbTI  - process of how they make the dishes



DELHI AIRPORT OUTLET PICS - 









WAKAD - MUMBAI-PUNE EXPRESSWAY OUTLET PICS -
HUGE OUTLET ON 2 ACRE LAND PARCEL WITH SEATING CAPACITY FOR 200 PEOPLE