BIG POSITIVES : GST COLLECTIONS & DOLLAR INDEX SETUP

BIG POSITIVES : GST COLLECTIONS & DOLLAR INDEX SETUP 

Biggest positive new in midst of Turmoil is GST colletions for July have exceeded targets whereas only 64% firms could file returns .

Checked with local CA offices as there is still some confusion in filing returns and CAs are over burdened that why all returns could not be uploaded on time.

Most of the Unorganized sector has not come under GST till now .

Real impact will come once the E WAY BILLs are implemented in NOV – DEC 2017 then most of unorganized guys will have no option but to get registered for GST .

Governments Tax collection is expected to improve substantially resulting improved TAX to GDP ratio and In turn improved RATINGs by foreign rating  agencies .

Another positive is – DOLLAR index near breakdown pattern on charts,if it happens then the fund flows to emerging markets will resume .

USA economy is continuing to improve on various parameters and investors are neglecting the war threat with N korea. 

CENTRUM CAPITAL - Road Ahead for promising Diversified NBFC.

CENTRUM CAPITAL - Road Ahead for promising Diversified NBFC.
I had shared the buy call on 1 feb 2017 when the price was 35/- now it has run up to 72 levels and stock being put in T2T segment , so whats the path ahead ??

I feel that it can be compared to the like of uniply where there was a management change in feb 2015

Mr keshav Kantamneni bought a 36% in the company and drove the company to profitability and growth.

During the entire phase the valuation looked too stretched But the investors who had conviction held on to it and reaped rich benefits, at the later stages seasoned investors like Ramesh damani and R.k damani invested in the company. In 2.5 years the stock is a 25 bagger.

There is management change in centrum capital too and “Jaspal Bindra” a seasoned banker with vast experience has taken control and has invested 90 crores of his own money to buy 20% in the company.

Centrum capital is into following verticals –

Forex services – They are among the top players in India.

Investment banking

Stock broking

Wealth Management

Insurance

SME finance – Started in Fy -17

Housing Finance- Started in fy -17 -

PE fund – Kalpvriksha with 500 crores.

Micro Finance – have applied for micro finance license and expected to get it in 3-4 months.

They have appointed CEO’s for various verticals, hiring and branch expansion is going at rapid pace and

Spoke to few employees, this year the increment & bonus was good and the mood is very upbeat in the company, it’s a matter of time that the performance will be there.

Centrum is a well-known brand and has presence throughout the country with 135 branches in 46 cities

They can surely leverage the brand and can utilize the huge existing customer base.

In a recent interview with stallion Asset Rashesh shah of edelweiss has mentioned -

Edelweiss wants to create a 1,00,000 Crore loan book divided in 10 verticals so they can stop lending as risk increases, or increase lending in a vertical as opportunity increases. We believe a diversified NBFC is atleast 5x more safer than a concentrated one segment NBFC and deserves a higher valuation. Full interview can be read here https://www.stallionasset.com/blog/edelweiss-investor-day/ - this is a very insightful interview to understand the future of NFBC sector in India. 

I believe centrum is also going in the edelweiss way where they want to grow in different verticals and establish themselves as a strong Financial Institution in the long term.

Market is bound to get excited with the news announcements by the company at various times and the valuations  may seem stretched in short term but if one can have patience and can hold on for 4 -6 quarters then the Nos will also start showing.